I intended on commenting on the US Dollar’s (USD) acquiescence to the Canadian Dollar (CAD) last Thursday when I received an email from Yahoo!, but I have been too busy to do so. As a result of a the half point drop in interest rates by the US Federal Reserve on Thursday we found for parts of the day (first time in 31 years) the CAD to be worth more than the USD. The reason I bring this up is that I wrote a paper 2 years ago on the projected value of the CAD for an international finance and economics course. The inspiration that made me choose the topic of this paper came when the VP of the Canadian Central Bank came to lecture our class on monetary policy and the future of the CAD. The findings in my paper paralleled most economist’s predictions about the CAD and how it was projected to make significant gains on the USD (It was roughly at around $1.25 CAD/USD the day of the lecture). From what I remember, I concluded that the CAD would surpass the USD and possibly by about $0.10 ($0.90 CAD/USD) based on the economic indicators of the time. I am not current enough in my knowledge on recent indicators to give estimates on the what is in store for the CAD (and I would have to brush up on a lot of theory…lol). I still think that the CAD will remain strong at least for a while purely based on what I have been reading recently about the international markets. This is especially rings true when we look at the Chinese currency peg to the USD and the huge amounts of USD China needs to achieve this and how global trade has shifted to demand increasing amounts of commodities from our resource rich nation.

This high dollar does pose a major threat to to all our domestic export oriented firms (although import oriented firms will be rejoicing). We have been blessed for a long period of time here in Canada with a trade surplus which has aided out economic growth and has sustained us in harsher economic times. The economy over the last 30 years has been subsidized by a less valuable CAD, and this has had a definite effect on our economy and the competitiveness of our firms. With a rise in the CAD we are starting to rely increasingly more and more on outsourcing to remain competitive and this will only increase. There is some positive in all of this that we must not forget. The extortion of corporations and the immoral and selfish behavior towards society by unions will hopefully loose ground as an increasing number of union jobs are relocated to countries with a competitive advantage in the labor market.

All jokes aside though, this actually really sucks for me. As the CAD increase, the value of Silverback Apparel sales in the US will diminish as long as I am living here in Canada and eventually converting profits back into CAD. I guess that means I might have to price everything in CAD if our dollar starts doing any better. Anyways I am expecting an early November launch of my first products (October 31th seem unlikely but I’m shooting for the Christmas shopping boom) online and in retail shortly thereafter. Keep up to date with my progress at the Silverback Apparel website.